Course
Three Checks Before You Back a Trend
7 lessons
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Something new is growing fast and everyone is arguing about whether it matters. This course gives you three checks you can run yourself. You practise on measured cases from the last twenty years, including two that grew enormously, looked unstoppable, and fell. By the end you will not call the winner every time. You will stop being fooled twice by the same shape.
What you’ll learn
1.Three checks, and the order to run them in
You start on two curves that look the same at the peak and end very differently. You learn which kind of bad a thing survives and which kind kills it. You run the floor test on measured numbers from 2007, 2010 and 2021, and watch it disagree with the mood in the room. You put the three checks in cost order, then run the cheapest one on something you are actually deciding this quarter. You commit three numbers before you see them. You find the line where more proof stops changing your answer. And you finish where nobody plans: the week after you turn out to be right.
7 lessons
- Two things that both went viral
- Bad at the answer, or bad at the job
- The month the floor fell
- Who else is already less bad
- Write the number down
- How much proof is enough
- When it works, the plan is what dies
How this course works
This is an interactive course, not a video playlist. Lessons mix short explanations with hands-on activities — quizzes, drag-and-drop exercises, branching scenarios and step-ordering challenges — and you have to complete each activity before moving on, so you practise rather than skim. Your progress is saved as you go, so you can stop after any lesson and pick up where you left off.
Topics covered
- judging a trend
- reading a growth curve
- evidence before commitment
- deciding with incomplete data
- interactive